Grid operator forecasting 11% increase in electricity consumption by 2034
A 10-year downturn is reversing as electric vehicle and heat pump adoption increases, but not as quickly as originally predicted.
A LONG-EXPECTED SHIFT in New England electricity consumption – from using less power each year to consuming more as residents embrace electric vehicles and heat pumps – is beginning to happen, but the shift isn’t expected to be quite as dramatic as forecasters were predicting just a year ago.
The operator of the New England power grid released a study on Thursday saying a 10-year downturn in consumption of electricity from the region’s generating plants is coming to an end and giving way to the need for more electricity production over the next decade.
A year ago, ISO New England forecast a 17 percent increase in consumption of electricity generated by the region’s power plants by 2033. The latest report, citing a slowdown in electric vehicle and electric heat pump adoption rates, pares back the increase to 11 percent by 2034.
The shift is still fairly dramatic. According to the grid operator, electricity consumption steadily increased between 1995 and 2005, as the region experienced economic growth and New Englanders installed air conditioning in their homes and businesses. That trend reversed after 2005 as many residents reduced their consumption of electricity from power plants by embracing energy efficiency measures and by meeting all or some of their own power needs by installing solar panels.
Energy efficiency and home-grown solar production are continuing. Overall, solar power production in New England is forecasted to grow 88 percent over the next decade to 14,343 megawatts. Massachusetts is the leader, expected to generate 6,952 megawatts by 2034.
Still, ISO New England predicts the growth in solar and energy savings from efficiency measures will not be enough to offset the forecasted increased demand for electricity to power vehicles and home heating systems. The regional grid operator is forecasting that the electrification of the transportation and heating sectors will boost summer peak demand by 68 megawatts in 2025 and 956 megawatts by 2034. Peak demand during the winter heating season is expected to rise by 300 megawatts in 2025 and 6,529 megawatts by 2034.
Those increases are being predicted even though the Trump administration in Washington is pulling back support for electric vehicle, heat pump, and solar power subsidies.
The New England grid operator is forecasting that “net” electricity use – which is defined as electricity imported into the region or generated locally but not including solar home installations – will hit 130,665 gigawatt hours by 2034. That’s up from 116,813 gigawatt hours in 2024 and below the 2005 peak of 136,425 gigawatt hours.
ISO New England is not currently sounding alarms about its ability to secure enough electricity to meet future demand growth. A spokeswoman for the grid operator said it is currently counting on the construction of two offshore wind farms – Vineyard Wind off the coast of Massachusetts and Revolution Wind off the coast of Rhode Island. Both wind farms are currently under construction and haven’t been blocked by the Trump administration, which opposes the development of offshore wind.
Buzz editorial note: A new substation is expected to be built in Burlington near Marshall Simonds Middle School in the coming year or two, to supplement the station on Middlesex Turnpike, which is currently operating near 100% capacity.
This article first appeared on CommonWealth Beacon and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
